bellwether

[ bel-weth-er ]

/ ˈbɛlˌwɛð ər /

a wether or other male sheep that leads the flock, usually bearing a bell.

a person or thing that assumes the leadership or forefront, as of a profession or industry: Paris is a bellwether of the fashion industry.

a person or thing that shows the existence or direction of a trend; index.

a person who leads a mob, mutiny, conspiracy, or the like; ringleader.

Origin of bellwether

late Middle English word dating back to 1400–50; see origin at bell¹, wether

2 leader, pacesetter, frontrunner, trailblazer.

Brad Plumer notes that Walmart sales are often a bellwether for the rest of the economy.

Walmart Customers Have Disappeared. Will They Take the Economy With Them? |Megan McArdle |February 19, 2013 |DAILY BEAST
So Ohio is more than just a bellwether; it could decide the election.

Virginia, Ohio, Florida: What to Watch For on Election Night 2012 |Howard Kurtz |November 6, 2012 |DAILY BEAST
One state both candidates are sure to spend time in is Ohio, which has already emerged once again as a bellwether in the race.

Despite Obama’s Policies, The Rust Belt’s Revival Could Save His Campaign |Joel Kotkin |June 25, 2012 |DAILY BEAST
One safe prediction, though: whichever side wins will waste no time assuring the nation that their victory is a bellwether.

The Race to Replace Weiner |David A. Graham |September 13, 2011 |DAILY BEAST

Of the Bellwether Prize, Durrow says simply: “It changed my whole life.”

A Novelist's Biracial Struggle |John Douglas Marshall |March 12, 2010 |DAILY BEAST
One bellwether will carry a whole flock after it, but I fear not that any will want to hold back.

By Right of Conquest |G. A. Henty
And the whole nine of us obligingly trudged after him like sheep after the bellwether, and reëntered the castle.

The Adventures of the Eleven Cuff-Buttons |James Francis Thierry
Without some governing body to direct the affairs of the country they would have been like a flock without its bellwether.

Bonaparte in Egypt and the Egyptians of To-day |Haji A. Browne
But take a sheep flock now—the bellwether is jest a nice gentle old castrate thet'll do jest whut the sheepherder wants.

Assassin |Jesse Franklin Bone
And what is the use of arguing with sheep who are leaping after the bellwether?

The Champagne Standard |Mrs. John Lane

bellwether

/ (ˈbɛlˌwɛðə) /

a sheep that leads the herd, often bearing a bell

a leader, esp one followed unquestioningly